Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5073

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.680). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5072, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5073
    21 Oct 2026, 07:25 UTC

    BANF2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionBANF2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2513a25542723fcb

    discovery+0.16 p=0.680 n=9

    replication-0.67 p=0.047 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.680)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0a2340dab4051d9ff8e92e81…
    follows 1a9643f1670c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5073: BANF2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.34 (p 0.164, n 18), 95% CI -0.70 to +0.15. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.37 (p 0.132, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.49 (p 0.038, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.50 to -0.26, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.34 (p 0.164, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BANF2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.