Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4982

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.551). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4981, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4982
    21 Oct 2026, 05:24 UTC

    DNER

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionDNER in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0df6f9d3ebdd7ebe

    discovery-0.23 p=0.551 n=9

    replication+0.41 p=0.273 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.551)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5aa7484f5c456b8a11e5f9e6…
    follows 20fc5e9c4270…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4982: DNER in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.16 (p 0.515, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.33. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.20 (p 0.424, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.30 (p 0.225, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.26 to -0.03, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.16 (p 0.515, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DNER in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.