Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0498

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.668). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 497, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0498
    17 Oct 2026, 02:18 UTC

    TBC1D24

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTBC1D24 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf0c60a1b8fd6ee3a

    discovery-0.17 p=0.668 n=9

    replication-0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.668)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7c44fa66006d6d569d08e9ca…
    follows 593e43625dbf…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0498: TBC1D24 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.23 (p 0.351, n 18), 95% CI -0.63 to +0.26. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.23 (p 0.351, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.22 (p 0.374, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.36 to -0.13, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.23 (p 0.351, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TBC1D24 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.