Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4966

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.39, p 0.300). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4965, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4966
    21 Oct 2026, 05:02 UTC

    BNIP3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionBNIP3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb611131166638f32

    discovery+0.39 p=0.300 n=9

    replication-0.31 p=0.411 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.39, p 0.300)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    976469083d65890760e24c2c…
    follows 288a7af994e1…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4966: BNIP3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.32 (p 0.191, n 18), 95% CI -0.17 to +0.69. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.31 (p 0.211, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.32 (p 0.194, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.23 to +0.47, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.32 (p 0.191, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BNIP3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.