Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4964

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.08, p 0.838). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4963, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4964
    21 Oct 2026, 04:59 UTC

    HOXB1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHOXB1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2196100273e24695

    discovery+0.08 p=0.838 n=9

    replication-0.62 p=0.074 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.08, p 0.838)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    866a9bb7114d9f86ed53d44d…
    follows ddf2c86c33a7…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4964: HOXB1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.30 (p 0.232, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.20. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.26 (p 0.306, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.56 (p 0.016, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.42 to -0.21, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.30 (p 0.232, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HOXB1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.