Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4950

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.09, p 0.815). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4949, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4950
    21 Oct 2026, 04:40 UTC

    PPP2R5D

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPPP2R5D in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb5a5e2d8a9993f84

    discovery-0.09 p=0.815 n=9

    replication-0.81 p=0.0086 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.09, p 0.815)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ec630f5be852c52b70fc7efd…
    follows 79b8cb788ca1…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4950: PPP2R5D in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.40 (p 0.099, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.08. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.39 (p 0.114, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.46 (p 0.057, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.55 to -0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.40 (p 0.099, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PPP2R5D in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.