Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4913

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.24, p 0.533). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4912, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4913
    21 Oct 2026, 03:50 UTC

    TUBB2B

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionTUBB2B in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered653c4e99e49fd4ad

    discovery-0.24 p=0.533 n=9

    replication-0.43 p=0.243 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.24, p 0.533)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    82ecae8d6baa0fd2feee2f70…
    follows 403b18c38499…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4913: TUBB2B in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.39 (p 0.105, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.09. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.38 (p 0.116, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.35 (p 0.156, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.51 to -0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.39 (p 0.105, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TUBB2B in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.