Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4909

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.13, p 0.732). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4908, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4909
    21 Oct 2026, 03:45 UTC

    POP4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPOP4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc4204b47198583f3

    discovery+0.13 p=0.732 n=9

    replication+0.21 p=0.591 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.13, p 0.732)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    00cb82cd786393396261103b…
    follows fce69d9c6b34…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4909: POP4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.13 (p 0.621, n 18), 95% CI -0.36 to +0.56. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.20 (p 0.429, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.23 (p 0.360, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.01 to +0.24, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors +0.13 (p 0.621, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for POP4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.