Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4882

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.09, p 0.825). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4881, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4882
    21 Oct 2026, 03:09 UTC

    CBLN1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCBLN1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda5bcfd0a3566c008

    discovery+0.09 p=0.825 n=9

    replication-0.26 p=0.502 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.09, p 0.825)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    482e236944c4188022d382c6…
    follows 5b2649c841e0…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4882: CBLN1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.19 (p 0.439, n 18), 95% CI -0.61 to +0.30. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.15 (p 0.561, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.12 (p 0.627, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.35 to -0.10, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.19 (p 0.439, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CBLN1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.