Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0487

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.24, p 0.539). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 486, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0487
    17 Oct 2026, 02:01 UTC

    NUP160

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionNUP160 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered07a504eef8ae04a6

    discovery-0.24 p=0.539 n=9

    replication-0.52 p=0.150 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.24, p 0.539)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    81c847a46980fa2802d7c91f…
    follows 70bf2dc8d68b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0487: NUP160 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.36 (p 0.137, n 18), 95% CI -0.71 to +0.12. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.34 (p 0.170, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.37 (p 0.135, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.56 to -0.28, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.36 (p 0.137, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NUP160 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.