Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4863

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.69 p 0.040; held-out +0.55 p 0.122). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4862, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4863
    21 Oct 2026, 02:44 UTC

    C6orf136

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionC6orf136 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb46562756b8d1926

    discovery-0.69 p=0.040 n=9

    replication+0.55 p=0.122 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.69 p 0.040; held-out +0.55 p 0.122)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    58cc718d0f4eca5859f19b41…
    follows 65f8006c4d5b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4863: C6orf136 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.02 (p 0.935, n 18), 95% CI -0.48 to +0.45. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.17 (p 0.498, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.18 to +0.05, sign flips 11; without severely affected donors -0.02 (p 0.935, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: +0.73 (p 5.9e-4, n 18) vs -0.02 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for C6orf136 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up C6orf136 · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort: not measured