Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4853

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.09, p 0.815). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4852, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4853
    21 Oct 2026, 02:33 UTC

    CCL3

    microglia, braak

    predictionCCL3 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1d0dacaf82a03a96

    discovery-0.09 p=0.815 n=9

    replication-0.61 p=0.079 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.09, p 0.815)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ca0a5eb76da5a22927b7984d…
    follows 97cf52e9e0c4…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4853: CCL3 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.32 (p 0.190, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.17. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.29 (p 0.249, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.06 (p 0.807, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.47 to -0.25, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.32 (p 0.190, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CCL3 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.