Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4793

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.68 p 0.043; held-out +0.04 p 0.909). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4792, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4793
    21 Oct 2026, 01:55 UTC

    IL18

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionIL18 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredaea0845537b67d1b

    discovery+0.68 p=0.043 n=9

    replication+0.04 p=0.909 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.68 p 0.043; held-out +0.04 p 0.909)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    ae96329887fe54285e087749…
    follows 88784a94a20d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4793: IL18 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.31 (p 0.218, n 18), 95% CI -0.19 to +0.68. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.28 (p 0.269, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.30 (p 0.225, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.23 to +0.46, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.31 (p 0.218, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IL18 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.