Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4789

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.77 p 0.015; held-out +0.00 p 1.000). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4788, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4789
    21 Oct 2026, 01:49 UTC

    SLC35F5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC35F5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd579c8db926bf121

    discovery+0.77 p=0.015 n=9

    replication+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.77 p 0.015; held-out +0.00 p 1.000)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    acdafa7edca273c20df46b6d…
    follows 6a150ebb5107…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4789: SLC35F5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.42 (p 0.082, n 18), 95% CI -0.06 to +0.74. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.47 (p 0.050, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.64 (p 0.0044, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.35 to +0.59, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.42 (p 0.082, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.62 (p 0.0060, n 18) vs +0.42 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC35F5 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up SLC35F5 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.75 p 0.0077 (needs p < 4.1e-4)