Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4756

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.714). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4755, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4756
    21 Oct 2026, 00:52 UTC

    KCNH5

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionKCNH5 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede52065ef788fbd39

    discovery-0.14 p=0.714 n=9

    replication+0.03 p=0.929 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.714)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    42d66aa70083d50aac122d0a…
    follows 14a59889f7e1…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4756: KCNH5 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.00 (p 0.990, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.03 (p 0.901, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.03 (p 0.894, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.12 to +0.14, sign flips 10; without severely affected donors -0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in dopamine neurons: +0.61 (p 0.0069, n 18) vs -0.00 in oligodendrocytes. proposing dopamine neurons.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KCNH5 in oligodendrocytes.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up KCNH5 · dopamine neurons · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.35 p 0.214 (needs p < 4.1e-4)