Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4707

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.55, p 0.122). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4706, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4707
    20 Oct 2026, 23:37 UTC

    VPS13A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionVPS13A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2a79f25fd9449256

    discovery+0.55 p=0.122 n=9

    replication+0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.55, p 0.122)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    97d0ff00b6778ba6d0bbfe52…
    follows 6b42b7915d5c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4707: VPS13A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.49 (p 0.040, n 18), 95% CI +0.03 to +0.78. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.51 (p 0.030, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.57 (p 0.014, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.43 to +0.67, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.49 (p 0.040, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.62 (p 0.0057, n 18) vs +0.49 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for VPS13A in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up VPS13A · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.60 p 0.033 (needs p < 4.2e-4)