Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4689

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.716). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4688, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4689
    20 Oct 2026, 23:13 UTC

    CRLF3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCRLF3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfff2bf832ff6db86

    discovery-0.14 p=0.716 n=9

    replication+0.49 p=0.181 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.716)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c30c8797ef6598c717137a75…
    follows ca47ea5590d5…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4689: CRLF3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.20 (p 0.424, n 18), 95% CI -0.29 to +0.61. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.29 (p 0.250, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.45 (p 0.062, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.09 to +0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.20 (p 0.424, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CRLF3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.