Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4687

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.44, p 0.234). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4686, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4687
    20 Oct 2026, 23:10 UTC

    TBC1D2B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTBC1D2B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered27bc7c114f4882ae

    discovery+0.44 p=0.234 n=9

    replication-0.53 p=0.146 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.44, p 0.234)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d635a4cd1893ab2c2cc4dcac…
    follows 8fb95a8571c0…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4687: TBC1D2B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.17 (p 0.493, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.32. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.16 (p 0.521, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.19 (p 0.450, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.31 to -0.07, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.17 (p 0.493, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TBC1D2B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.