Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4663

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.35, p 0.358). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4662, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4663
    20 Oct 2026, 22:37 UTC

    CCDC85C

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCCDC85C in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered033bb3bdb2cf2c90

    discovery-0.35 p=0.358 n=9

    replication-0.41 p=0.276 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.35, p 0.358)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    22ea18f31eb8729513d9d31e…
    follows 86510eb75bf8…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4663: CCDC85C in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.41 (p 0.089, n 18), 95% CI -0.74 to +0.07. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.41 (p 0.089, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.52 (p 0.027, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.58 to -0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.41 (p 0.089, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.71 (p 0.0011, n 18) vs -0.41 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CCDC85C in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up CCDC85C · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.43 p 0.131 (needs p < 4.3e-4)