Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4658

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.487). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4657, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4658
    20 Oct 2026, 22:31 UTC

    KCND2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionKCND2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered91b5ac0ab411130e

    discovery-0.27 p=0.487 n=9

    replication+0.12 p=0.756 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.487)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2120da1d2dc7e9c9a4d1fee2…
    follows 37a9b17259b3…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4658: KCND2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.11 (p 0.664, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.38. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.16 (p 0.532, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.07 (p 0.774, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.24 to +0.01, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors -0.11 (p 0.664, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KCND2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.