Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4650

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.651). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4649, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4650
    20 Oct 2026, 22:20 UTC

    CHD7

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionCHD7 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1474dcb38f291d7a

    discovery-0.18 p=0.651 n=9

    replication+0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.651)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    47e064c429e761a75cc4be3e…
    follows 84ad06439e5f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4650: CHD7 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.06 (p 0.807, n 18), 95% CI -0.42 to +0.51. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.08 (p 0.754, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.07 to +0.16, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.06 (p 0.807, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: +0.60 (p 0.0083, n 18) vs +0.06 in oligodendrocytes. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CHD7 in oligodendrocytes.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up CHD7 · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.25 p 0.374 (needs p < 4.3e-4)