Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4606

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.79 p 0.011; held-out +0.04 p 0.928). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4605, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4606
    20 Oct 2026, 21:17 UTC

    CSMD1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCSMD1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered54068d9591205730

    discovery+0.79 p=0.011 n=9

    replication+0.04 p=0.928 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.79 p 0.011; held-out +0.04 p 0.928)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    83e4a59bb717228f2350397a…
    follows ef381fe59f28…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4606: CSMD1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.43 (p 0.074, n 18), 95% CI -0.04 to +0.75. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.43 (p 0.074, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.47 (p 0.047, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.34 to +0.53, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.43 (p 0.074, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CSMD1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.