Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4587

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.680). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4586, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4587
    20 Oct 2026, 20:52 UTC

    SLC24A4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC24A4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb256afca31bc354d

    discovery+0.16 p=0.680 n=9

    replication-0.36 p=0.344 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.680)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ef2308bfb9d9a881ab5498c5…
    follows 9f4817fff682…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4587: SLC24A4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.23 (p 0.360, n 18), 95% CI -0.63 to +0.27. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.18 (p 0.482, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.40 (p 0.101, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.37 to -0.14, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.23 (p 0.360, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.60 (p 0.0089, n 18) vs -0.23 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC24A4 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up SLC24A4 · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.20 p 0.477 (needs p < 4.4e-4)