Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4569

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.82 p 0.0068; held-out -0.54 p 0.137). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4568, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4569
    20 Oct 2026, 20:27 UTC

    LRRC4B

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionLRRC4B in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered664cb213367b838d

    discovery-0.82 p=0.0068 n=9

    replication-0.54 p=0.137 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.82 p 0.0068; held-out -0.54 p 0.137)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    f2808feb31e5ab4f4fe63e89…
    follows d697c6562fde…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4569: LRRC4B in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.63 (p 0.0053, n 18), 95% CI -0.85 to -0.23. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.63 (p 0.0053, n 18). holds up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.59 (p 0.011, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.72 to -0.57, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.63 (p 0.0053, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LRRC4B in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.