Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4553

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.651). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4552, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4553
    20 Oct 2026, 20:05 UTC

    KCNC4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionKCNC4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered167d2fa37045b5e0

    discovery-0.18 p=0.651 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.651)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2b81b2c33cda9a6264286a02…
    follows 77bfafabfaa6…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4553: KCNC4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.11 (p 0.677, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.38. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.10 (p 0.690, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.32 (p 0.201, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.24 to +0.00, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors -0.11 (p 0.677, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KCNC4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.