Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4516

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.29, p 0.449). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4515, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4516
    20 Oct 2026, 19:16 UTC

    GJC2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionGJC2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered54dc041630b0d54d

    discovery-0.29 p=0.449 n=9

    replication-0.82 p=0.0068 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.29, p 0.449)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    76d21fa4f19ae0433b9b4f07…
    follows 4fba89e3f6bf…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4516: GJC2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.50 (p 0.036, n 18), 95% CI -0.78 to -0.04. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.52 (p 0.027, n 18). holds up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.53 (p 0.024, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.73 to -0.46, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.50 (p 0.036, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GJC2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.