Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4507

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.702). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4506, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4507
    20 Oct 2026, 19:05 UTC

    NLGN3

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionNLGN3 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6b61c46f1b857d02

    discovery+0.15 p=0.702 n=9

    replication+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.702)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9744c69484fa68e1443e0d3d…
    follows 8c0445b5907d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4507: NLGN3 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.969, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.07 (p 0.794, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.01 (p 0.969, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.17 to +0.09, sign flips 13; without severely affected donors -0.01 (p 0.969, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NLGN3 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.