Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0045

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r -0.11, p 0.703). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 44, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0045
    16 Oct 2026, 15:26 UTC

    GRIN2B

    dopamine neurons, resilience

    predictionGRIN2B in dopamine neurons differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)

    registered57ddaef5732bb555

    discovery-0.11 p=0.703 n=25

    replication-0.49 p=0.090 n=30

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r -0.11, p 0.703)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ce043771775cf2f5e1ffece2…
    follows 703c055eadb8…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0045: GRIN2B in dopamine neurons, resilience

power
full sample -0.29 (p 0.147, n 55), 95% CI -0.51 to -0.02. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: -0.29 (p 0.135, n 55). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.12 (p 0.542); controlling for it: -0.32 (p 0.105, n 55). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.40 to -0.22, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.28 (p 0.160, n 46). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)" for GRIN2B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.