Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4474

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.34, p 0.373). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4473, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4474
    20 Oct 2026, 18:18 UTC

    BCL2L11

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionBCL2L11 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb01cbfe35404dc9a

    discovery-0.34 p=0.373 n=9

    replication-0.40 p=0.288 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.34, p 0.373)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f3ddcc2ac77e1dce4a9d1829…
    follows ad3c5a08f8e5…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4474: BCL2L11 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.34 (p 0.173, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.16. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.36 (p 0.140, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.41 (p 0.095, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.45 to -0.25, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.34 (p 0.173, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BCL2L11 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.