Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4461

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.787). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4460, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4461
    20 Oct 2026, 18:02 UTC

    NUPR1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNUPR1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5be062b393d96d0b

    discovery+0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    replication+0.07 p=0.857 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.787)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    de52e95420ddf2b481c2cc13…
    follows 75fcb727c39f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4461: NUPR1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.09 (p 0.722, n 18), 95% CI -0.39 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.13 (p 0.597, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.11 (p 0.677, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.03 to +0.23, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.09 (p 0.722, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NUPR1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.