Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4442

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.47, p 0.204). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4441, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4442
    20 Oct 2026, 17:37 UTC

    CHMP1A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCHMP1A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered379a2a519041e5b8

    discovery-0.47 p=0.204 n=9

    replication-0.29 p=0.443 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.47, p 0.204)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    420fbea2f61bbd6ce4f05a28…
    follows 8898dea5b4d9…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4442: CHMP1A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.49 (p 0.040, n 18), 95% CI -0.78 to -0.03. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.44 (p 0.064, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.46 (p 0.054, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.64 to -0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.49 (p 0.040, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CHMP1A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.