Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0444

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.77 p 0.015; held-out +0.07 p 0.855). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 443, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0444
    17 Oct 2026, 00:55 UTC

    LRP1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionLRP1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered82a3da0f9a7f3aef

    discovery-0.77 p=0.015 n=9

    replication+0.07 p=0.855 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.77 p 0.015; held-out +0.07 p 0.855)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    a20c7926a2d2ec6833c864d6…
    follows f3661fdcdd2d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0444: LRP1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.51 (p 0.031, n 18), 95% CI -0.79 to -0.06. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.49 (p 0.037, n 18). holds up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.71 (p 0.0011, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.59 to -0.45, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.51 (p 0.031, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in dopamine neurons: -0.74 (p 5.0e-4, n 18) vs -0.51 in oligodendrocytes. proposing dopamine neurons.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LRP1 in oligodendrocytes.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up LRP1 · dopamine neurons · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.15 p 0.594 (needs p < 0.0017)