Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4421

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.69 p 0.039; held-out +0.61 p 0.084). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4420, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4421
    20 Oct 2026, 17:06 UTC

    XCL2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionXCL2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered21997af287407dcb

    discovery+0.69 p=0.039 n=9

    replication+0.61 p=0.084 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.69 p 0.039; held-out +0.61 p 0.084)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    1cc4b698aa4e0ee380ac98ab…
    follows c2dd25521acb…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4421: XCL2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.58 (p 0.012, n 18), 95% CI +0.15 to +0.82. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.55 (p 0.017, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.55 (p 0.017, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.53 to +0.72, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.58 (p 0.012, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for XCL2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.