Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4419

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.06, p 0.869). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4418, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4419
    20 Oct 2026, 17:04 UTC

    USP19

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionUSP19 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered138ade6c84428d68

    discovery-0.06 p=0.869 n=9

    replication-0.69 p=0.040 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.06, p 0.869)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    86adb2ee6e3b8481368e29d8…
    follows feb3be5e80d5…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4419: USP19 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.45 (p 0.059, n 18), 95% CI -0.76 to +0.02. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.47 (p 0.049, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.55 (p 0.018, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.59 to -0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.45 (p 0.059, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for USP19 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.