Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4386

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.321). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4385, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4386
    20 Oct 2026, 16:20 UTC

    SPG11

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSPG11 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5ab5e9c18ba2ec9e

    discovery+0.37 p=0.321 n=9

    replication-0.75 p=0.019 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.321)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    099118553a2d1643ca37243c…
    follows d1426cb75daa…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4386: SPG11 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.28 (p 0.269, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.22. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.19 (p 0.460, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.10 (p 0.683, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.44 to -0.19, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.28 (p 0.269, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SPG11 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.