Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4363

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.08, p 0.840). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4362, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4363
    20 Oct 2026, 15:49 UTC

    SLC1A4

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionSLC1A4 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf3a104fe2595979e

    discovery-0.08 p=0.840 n=9

    replication-0.37 p=0.323 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.08, p 0.840)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3ec2be21f2f91fdf10573dd5…
    follows dc83c8166c30…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4363: SLC1A4 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.26 (p 0.306, n 18), 95% CI -0.65 to +0.24. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.14 (p 0.585, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.38 to -0.15, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.26 (p 0.306, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC1A4 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.