Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4358

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.59, p 0.095). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4357, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4358
    20 Oct 2026, 15:44 UTC

    ARRB2

    microglia, braak

    predictionARRB2 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2ce29911583119a1

    discovery-0.59 p=0.095 n=9

    replication+0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.59, p 0.095)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    638ec6aa30be918c7a47f195…
    follows 65a889059b1a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4358: ARRB2 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.10 (p 0.696, n 18), 95% CI -0.54 to +0.39. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.09 (p 0.709, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.05 (p 0.854, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.26 to +0.03, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.10 (p 0.696, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.60 (p 0.0086, n 18) vs -0.10 in microglia. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARRB2 in microglia.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up ARRB2 · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.18 p 0.534 (needs p < 4.5e-4)