Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4352

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.790). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4351, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4352
    20 Oct 2026, 15:35 UTC

    TBC1D5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTBC1D5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc63aaad2e8592dc5

    discovery+0.10 p=0.790 n=9

    replication+0.22 p=0.565 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.790)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    765cdb64e8014bda772c03e1…
    follows 5efdfd3db43c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4352: TBC1D5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.19 (p 0.455, n 18), 95% CI -0.31 to +0.60. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.19 (p 0.450, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.19 (p 0.450, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.10 to +0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TBC1D5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.