Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4350

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.80 p 0.0097; held-out -0.42 p 0.258). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4349, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4350
    20 Oct 2026, 15:33 UTC

    EEF1D

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionEEF1D in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9d4ba53e369341e5

    discovery-0.80 p=0.0097 n=9

    replication-0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.80 p 0.0097; held-out -0.42 p 0.258)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    653c07a3075eb704bf484c86…
    follows 5023a4c0de5f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4350: EEF1D in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.61 (p 0.0069, n 18), 95% CI -0.84 to -0.20. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.59 (p 0.0096, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.63 (p 0.0051, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.78 to -0.56, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.61 (p 0.0069, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EEF1D in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.