Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4345

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.685). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4344, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4345
    20 Oct 2026, 15:27 UTC

    NFIA

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionNFIA in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredef418a498df10a31

    discovery+0.16 p=0.685 n=9

    replication+0.37 p=0.323 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.685)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e0ec92fa0116d091f961c79c…
    follows ff126842de83…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4345: NFIA in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.40 (p 0.103, n 18), 95% CI -0.09 to +0.73. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.42 (p 0.080, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.50 (p 0.036, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.33 to +0.55, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.40 (p 0.103, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.65 (p 0.0037, n 18) vs +0.40 in astrocytes. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NFIA in astrocytes.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up NFIA · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.00 p 1.000 (needs p < 4.6e-4)