Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0431

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.859). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 430, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0431
    17 Oct 2026, 00:36 UTC

    NDUFB10

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNDUFB10 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered16f479d97f7956aa

    discovery-0.07 p=0.859 n=9

    replication-0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.859)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a815087ab14b0e08055edd08…
    follows ca4938ecd5db…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0431: NDUFB10 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.06 (p 0.814, n 18), 95% CI -0.51 to +0.42. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.14 (p 0.573, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.05 (p 0.834, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.14 to +0.08, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.06 (p 0.814, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NDUFB10 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.