Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4278

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.909). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4277, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4278
    20 Oct 2026, 13:56 UTC

    IL1R2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionIL1R2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9064f8e1f5580aa4

    discovery+0.04 p=0.909 n=9

    replication-0.83 p=0.0053 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.909)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    bf48087771926ed4eafa6b17…
    follows 931a1f68dfef…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4278: IL1R2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.31 (p 0.214, n 18), 95% CI -0.68 to +0.19. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.38 (p 0.125, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.44 (p 0.070, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.46 to -0.22, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.31 (p 0.214, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IL1R2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.