Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4224

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.32, p 0.400). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4223, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4224
    20 Oct 2026, 12:42 UTC

    NEFM

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNEFM in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredadf3541ac04dbac8

    discovery+0.32 p=0.400 n=9

    replication+0.74 p=0.021 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.32, p 0.400)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3e5acccd8f776a73b6f38f64…
    follows 7ea7d03d45df…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4224: NEFM in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.38 (p 0.125, n 18), 95% CI -0.11 to +0.72. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.44 (p 0.064, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.49 (p 0.040, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.32 to +0.59, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.38 (p 0.125, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NEFM in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.