Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4203

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.08, p 0.842). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4202, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4203
    20 Oct 2026, 12:14 UTC

    CNP

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionCNP in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb298cbd136963467

    discovery+0.08 p=0.842 n=9

    replication-0.62 p=0.073 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.08, p 0.842)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b284147808da2c4025042ab3…
    follows a61374c21b8b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4203: CNP in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.27 (p 0.281, n 18), 95% CI -0.65 to +0.23. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.29 (p 0.250, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.26 (p 0.294, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.44 to -0.19, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.27 (p 0.281, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CNP in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.