Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0420

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.493). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 419, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0420
    17 Oct 2026, 00:20 UTC

    FYN

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionFYN in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredde08303e8a7b133b

    discovery-0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    replication-0.17 p=0.668 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.493)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9009950715274920f39064bf…
    follows 94226c5d282c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0420: FYN in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.28 (p 0.258, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.21. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.21 (p 0.393, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.15 (p 0.561, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.48 to -0.22, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.28 (p 0.258, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FYN in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.