Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0042

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.446). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 41, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0042
    16 Oct 2026, 15:23 UTC

    DRD3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDRD3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredeb7274981066a98f

    discovery+0.12 p=0.446 n=42

    replication-0.10 p=0.538 n=42

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.446)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    af990921945193706426cebf…
    follows 321ab128e8ac…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0042: DRD3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.03 (p 0.805, n 84), 95% CI -0.19 to +0.24. the interval sits on zero: probably nothing there.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: +0.02 (p 0.824, n 84). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis -0.72 (p 1.8e-14); controlling for it: +0.01 (p 0.956, n 84). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.01 to +0.06, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.07 (p 0.523, n 75). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DRD3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.