Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4174

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.49, p 0.177). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4173, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4174
    20 Oct 2026, 11:33 UTC

    SLC25A46

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC25A46 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb00f40605328b810

    discovery+0.49 p=0.177 n=9

    replication+0.20 p=0.597 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.49, p 0.177)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    78bb69bda50c7e4d00c6003f…
    follows 1d681fe70f82…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4174: SLC25A46 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.30 (p 0.232, n 18), 95% CI -0.20 to +0.67. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.30 (p 0.232, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.30 (p 0.232, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.22 to +0.46, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.30 (p 0.232, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC25A46 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.