Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4158

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.75 p 0.021; held-out +0.18 p 0.635). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4157, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4158
    20 Oct 2026, 11:11 UTC

    HIP1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHIP1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda880887ed1154f57

    discovery-0.75 p=0.021 n=9

    replication+0.18 p=0.635 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.75 p 0.021; held-out +0.18 p 0.635)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    529a38f0de369870bfc97727…
    follows 573a48895b59…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4158: HIP1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.29 (p 0.239, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.20. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.26 (p 0.294, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.31 (p 0.214, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.40 to -0.19, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.29 (p 0.239, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HIP1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.