Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0413

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.38, p 0.311). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 412, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0413
    17 Oct 2026, 00:09 UTC

    PTPN12

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPTPN12 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4039bb3bb849d331

    discovery+0.38 p=0.311 n=9

    replication-0.41 p=0.272 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.38, p 0.311)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    869efd33e65a0a4a8138c67b…
    follows 3f1c5927e944…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0413: PTPN12 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.02 (p 0.928, n 18), 95% CI -0.48 to +0.45. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.03 (p 0.908, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.15 to +0.09, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors -0.02 (p 0.928, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PTPN12 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.