Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4120

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.43, p 0.251). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4119, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4120
    20 Oct 2026, 10:21 UTC

    NPAS4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNPAS4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4fac2b7d321ffd97

    discovery-0.43 p=0.251 n=9

    replication-0.22 p=0.567 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.43, p 0.251)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ac290c29fbdb4bf0912a0f6f…
    follows 01acdb76acf6…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4120: NPAS4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.30 (p 0.232, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.20. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.31 (p 0.207, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.34 (p 0.167, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.46 to -0.23, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.30 (p 0.232, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NPAS4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.